Determining The National Champ

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The debate gets hotter each year on how to determine the National Champ in College Football. Everyone has an opinion, even Father Bob gave me his 8 team playoff scenario. Last year it was business as usual as Michigan was #2 in the BCS rankings after losing to Ohio St but dropped to #3 without playing a game. Florida got to the National Title game while Michigan, like most disappointed teams have done lately, lost their bowl game. In my bowl system Michigan and Florida would have faced each other on the field for the right to play the winner of Ohio St vs LSU who was #4 in the BCS rankings and that would have been a pair of outstanding games. In 2005, the BCS method worked out perfectly. In the old system, USC would have faced Penn St in the Rose Bowl and Texas would have played in the Orange Bowl and we would have had two undefeated teams at the end of the year. Unfortunately, the BCS method has only worked out perfectly TWICE in the TEN years of the system (20%). The previous two years worked out PERFECTLY for my method EXCEPT that the NCAA did not allow the National Title Game that I called for, which would have pitted LSU vs USC in a one-game Title match after the bowls in 2003 and USC and Auburn in a one-game Title match in 2004. This would have prevented the co-National Champs of 2003 and Auburn going undefeated and winning the SEC but not playing for a Title in 2004. The one game playoff is the only plan to make the situation perfect, as an 8 or 16 team playoff would not solve anything. It would destroy the bowls and make the regular season meaningless. I am a traditionalist when it comes to college football. I love the rivalries and the tradition of the bowls. During the holidays, I am a bowl junkie and I find each bowl to be interesting. I feel that bowls provide teams with a reward for a successful season, both financially, as well as for recruitment purposes and should be kept intact.

I know that in college basketball, the March Madness tournament is a major success. TV ratings are high and almost everyone in the country participates in their office pools, predicting who will be the National Champ. Many have said that they would like to see such a tournament for NCAA football as well. I definitely disagree with that. Here’s the main reason why: If you take a look at the NCAA hoops tournament and who is crowned champion, I think you will find that the most dominating team of the basketball season does not always win the championship. How can you say that a team like the 1985 Villanova squad, which finished the regular season 16-10, was the best team in the country simply because they won their last 6 games in the NCAA tournament? There were 10 teams during the regular season who were stronger than they were! To say at the end of the year that a team that lost 10 games was the strongest team in the NCAA was a joke and meant that the entire regular season was meaningless. 2005 was more of the same with all four #1 teams eliminated. The CHAMPIONSHIP game featured teams that were #7 and #11 in the polls during the regular season. Basically, the regular season meant nothing and if we went to a 16 game football format, would a battle between the #7 and #11 teams really be a title game?

The one thing I love about college football is that of all sports, college or pro, the REGULAR SEASON in college football is the one that MEANS THE MOST. You might be able to stay alive in the overall chase if you lose ONE regular season game, but two losses will most likely, and should, eliminate you. That means that the games in September, October and November are just as critical as the bowl games if you want to have a shot at the National Title. No other sport with an expanded playoff system can say that. College basketball’s regular season big games really mean ABSOLUTELY nothing as it only matters what you do in the tournament for the last 6 games. If the #1 team loses in college basketball it means nothing, as they will still be in the NCAA Tournament at the end of the year and it only matters what you do in those final 6 games.

The current BCS bowl method of determining the National Champion also has its flaws. In 1998, my No. 1 team in the country in the preseason was Ohio St. There was no doubt in my mind that Ohio St was the strongest and most complete team, but a late season upset loss to Mich St cost them a shot at appearing in the National Championship Game. The BCS picked Florida St, a team with one loss that was starting a backup QB, to take on Tennessee in the bowl. The Volunteers won the National Championship. Tennessee was far from a perfect team that year and caught many fortunate breaks to remain undefeated. Had Ohio St played either Florida St or UT in that year’s Fiesta Bowl, the Buckeyes would have been the favorite to win. The Buckeyes had to settle for second place after they whipped Texas A&M in their bowl.

In my 1999 magazine, I called for Nebraska to finish No. 1 in the country. No one else had Nebraska listed in the Top 5. The Huskers had a dominating year but had one bad game vs Texas (in which Nebraska had a 429-275 yd edge) and could not overcome their 6 turnovers. They later avenged that loss to Texas big time in the Big 12 Championship Game with a dominating 22-6 win, proving they were a stronger team than the Horns. They then dismantled Tennessee in the Fiesta Bowl, even more impressively than the 31-21 final indicated.

Florida St was a good team in 1999 but played their then soft ACC schedule, and even then, had some close calls vs Georgia Tech, Clemson and Florida. Virginia Tech was a great story in 1999, going undefeated and getting to the National Title game. The Hokies benefitted from a soft schedule as well, not playing a team near the caliber of Nebraska. Once again, had Nebraska played either VT or Florida St in the National Title Game, I feel they would have been a favorite to win. The Huskers probably would have defeated either of those two foes, as they had the best defense in the country but did not get to play for the Title.

In 2000, the BCS worked out pretty well, as the two best teams did get a shot at the National Title game when Florida St faced Oklahoma but both Miami, FL and Washington fans said they should have been the challenger to undefeated Oklahoma. Miami beat Florida St straight up, while Washington beat Miami straight up. They each had legitimate claims, as both faced tough schedules and had just one slip up. Two other teams that finished 10-1 did not have legitimate claims. Yes, Oregon St was the most impressive team in the Pac 10. The Beavers were blowing out opponents on a weekly basis, but they lost to Washington and only had one win over a final Top 25 team all year (Oregon). The same can be said for Virginia Tech, who did not defeat a single team ranked in the Top 25 and lost to Miami, Fl by 20.

In 2001, Nebraska suffered their first loss of the year at Colorado by a 62-36 margin in their season finale. Miami, FL went undefeated and indisputably deserved the Rose Bowl bid and a chance to vie for the Title. After Florida, Tennessee and Texas all fell by the wayside, Nebraska (controversially, by the BCS formula) got the call to face Miami, while Oregon and Colorado complained loudly that they were the ones that deserved a shot. Had Nebraska defeated Miami, the AP voters would likely have voted the Oregon/Colorado Fiesta Bowl winner the National Champ, showing a great deal of sentiment that those two teams deserved a shot at the Title. My proposed system would have allowed both Oregon and Colorado to play for the Title, along with Nebraska and Miami.

In 2002, it was a dream come true for the BCS, as there were just two unbeaten, teams at season’s end and they met in the Fiesta Bowl to determine the true National Champion. Ohio St beat Miami in double overtime. No arguments from anybody for the first time in BCS history!!

The 2003 season would have been perfect for my system, but we ended up with a split National Title and the #1 team in both polls NOT playing in the National Title game. Three teams had legitimate claims to appear in the National Title game (once again showing that 8 or 16 teams is unnecessary) and Michigan made a nice pick for the #4 spot. Had my system been in place, the teams would have played just like they did in 2003, but one or two weeks later, LSU could have faced USC and it would have been a true National Title Game with NO DISPUTES from anyone!!!!

Once again, in 2004, there were three teams that could have argued for a spot in the National Title game. Auburn is a team that plays in the rugged SEC, who not only went undefeated, but also won the SEC Title game and yet did not get a chance to play for the Title. There were a couple of other unbeaten teams at the end of the year, but about 15 teams in the country would have had unbeaten records playing their schedules, so they had no real argument. All teams that had one loss had no real argument. The bottom line is as long as the Top 3 got in, it did not matter who the #4 team would have been.

As you can tell, I feel that the best team in the country did not win the National Title in at least three of the last ten years. The Title game foes were controversial in 8 of the 10 years with two split National Titles the last 10 years. I really think that a BCS conference team that suffers just one tough loss, but is dominating in every other game vs a decent schedule, deserves a shot at the National Title game (unless there are two unbeaten teams left). I see a lot of proposals for 8 and 16 team matchups but I feel that is going too far. As I previously pointed out, there is no reason to include teams with numerous losses as if they were true National Championship contenders. If they were, they would have taken care of business during the regular season. I also think, that by including teams with 2 or 3 losses in the National Championship picture, you dilute the greatness of college football during the regular season. There ARE many games with National Championship implications during the regular season. As an example, when Miami, Fl and Florida St face off every year, normally one is eliminated from the championship race and the other is still alive. Why not let those games keep their “playoff-like” atmosphere, thus preserving their importance? If you expand the field to 16, you allow teams to be able to lose games like that and still look forward to the post season and a shot at winning the Title. It would take a GREAT end of the season matchup like Ohio St and Michigan (#1 vs #2 in ‘06) and make it less relevant. Instead of it being an all important destiny changing game if both teams are in the Top 10, they would probably make the 16 game playoff whether they win or lose to each other. I do not want to dilute college football during the regular season and feel that only a select few who meet the challenges of the regular season deserve to be in the Title chase. I feel college football regular season games are the most important games of any sport due to their impact on the Title chase.

Here is my plan to determine the National Champ and actually it is very close to what we have now. It should be feasible in the foreseeable future and I feel it would establish a true National Champ. This is the EIGHTH straight year I have called for it in my magazine. To determine the National Champ, I feel that they should continue with the BCS rankings but include the Top FOUR teams in the BCS chase. The two semifinal games would be played on Jan 1 and rotate as the bowls do now between the Rose, Orange, Sugar and Fiesta. The Top 4 teams in the country, according to the BCS, would be invited. If you look at the last 10 years, this would have included No. 3 Ohio St in 1998, No. 3 Nebraska in 1999, BOTH Oregon and Colorado in 2001, #1 USC in 2003 AND undefeated SEC Champ Auburn in 2004 and Michigan in 2006. In this scenario, the teams decide who is the National Champ on the field. No. 1 would face No. 4 and No. 2 would face No. 3 in the January 1 bowls. After the first round matchups, the Championship Game could be played during the bye week before the Super Bowl. This would allow the teams plenty of time for preparation and for fans to make travel arrangements, given the three to four week span. It also gives football fans something to look forward to during the week that the NFL is off. It would also prevent a team like Ohio St from playing in a national title game after not having played for 51 days which affected their performance.

Then there would be absolutely no question that it would be a true National Title game, as the Top 4 teams would be involved. Now let’s take a look at how this would have affected the last 10 years races. In 1997, the “final four” would have been Michigan, Nebraska, Florida St and N Carolina. This is one year in which there would have been little question as to who the Top 2 teams were, as Michigan and Nebraska should have met in the Title game, with both teams going unbeaten. If the 2 had played, there would have been no split of the National Title and a true champion could have been crowned. The No. 5 (UCLA) and No. 6 (Florida) teams each had 2 losses and once again did NOT deserve a role in the Title game chase. The current BCS system, which was devised after the ‘97 season, would have also provided the same outcome as it would have matched the two unbeaten teams. But I find fault with a system that would have given us a true Title game in only 3 of the last 10 years.

In 1998, Ohio St would have faced Florida St in one of the semifinal matchups. With a backup QB, Florida St would have been no match for the Buckeyes’ top-rated defense and Ohio St would have advanced. Tennessee would have matched up with Kansas St, a team that was unbeaten until the Big 12 Championship game. In that particular game, I would have rated it a toss-up as both would have had a chance to advance. I still feel Ohio St would have polished off whoever emerged from that game but, as you can see, I do not feel the best two teams participated in the “National Title” game that the BCS presented. Team No. 5 was Arizona and No. 6 was UCLA and I do not feel either of those teams were National Title caliber. They simply achieved their records by playing in the Pac 10 (which was a weak conference that year) and really did not have defenses comparable to the Top 4 teams.

In 1999, Nebraska would have faced Virginia Tech in one of the semifinal games. The Huskers’ defense would have contained Michael Vick in a tight, low-scoring game and NU would have advanced, as their tougher schedule would have had them better prepared. Florida St would have faced whoever the BCS poll had rated in the No. 4 slot. Wisconsin was No. 4 in both polls and Alabama and Tennessee were No. 5 and No. 6, even though all three had 2 losses. Kansas St was No. 8 with only one loss. A strong case could be made AGAINST all 4 from having a shot at the National Title game but, since you have to pick one, let’s say Wisconsin was chosen because they were #4. As you can see, in 1999 there would not have been any complaints of teams left out, as it was tough to find one that was at the level of the Top 3. Florida St would have dispatched Wisconsin. That would have forced a true National Title game between Nebraska and Florida St, who were the top two teams in reality.

In 2000, my system would have been a dream. With Oregon St and Virginia Tech dismissed due to strength of schedule (or lack thereof), Washington would have faced Oklahoma and Miami would have had a rematch with Florida St for the right to play in the Title game. There would be no complaints after the season and those teams left out would be forced to play stronger non-conf foes, making the regular season even more enjoyable.

The year 2001 was another season in which my system would have produced a ton of excitement and a great college football final four. No. 1 Miami, FL No. 2 Nebraska, No. 3 Colorado and No. 4 Oregon would have qualified. The Canes and the Ducks would have been a great game, in which Miami would have been favored, but it would have given UO a chance to earn the nation’s respect. In the other game, Colorado would have had the chance to show that their first matchup with Nebraska was no fluke. It would also have given the Buffaloes the chance to show that the BCS computer, which ranked them .05 behind the Huskers, had in fact slighted them. This scenario would have been fun to watch and would have eliminated any doubt as to the identity of the true National Champ.

The 2002 year was perfect for the BCS with the two unbeaten teams but, in this system, each would have had to play another game to get to the Title game. While arguably two of the top teams in the country at the end of the season were USC and Kansas St, each had lost 2 games during the year and would have been on the outside looking in. Once again this shows how important regular season games are in this system. The No. 3 and No. 4 teams (Iowa and Georgia) each had one loss and would have faced the top two in the semi’s. I feel that Ohio St would have beaten Iowa (which subsequently lost to USC in the Orange Bowl) and Miami would have beaten Georgia, and the battle of unbeatens still would have happened but 2 or 3 weeks into January. 2005 would’ve been a similar scenario with just 2 unbeaten teams (USC & Texas).

I detailed how 2003 was a perfect scenario for my system, as well as 2004. In 2004, #1 USC would have battled the #4 team. It could have been Texas, California or Utah. The bottom line is, no matter who was left out, they would have had NO argument about the team that was picked, as they were simply lucky to be in it. If I was on the committee to choose, I would have made the simple argument that California (which lost during the regular season to USC) and Texas (which lost during the regular season to Oklahoma) ALREADY HAD their playoff games and lost them. I would have chosen Utah, which was unbeaten and played a much tougher schedule than Boise. That really shows the importance of regular season games. Utah would have been whipped by USC and Oklahoma probably would have lost to Auburn. Therefore we would have had USC vs Auburn and EVERYONE would have acknowledged that as the true National Title game. My system would have produced the true National Title game in TEN out of TEN YEARS!!!

Here is a recap of the Top 5 teams in the country over the past 10 years showing that the 4 team format is clearly the best.

I already talked about how 2003 and 2004 were PERFECT for my system. It would have produced National Title games between LSU vs USC in 2003 and USC vs Auburn in 2004 that no one could argue about. I will add one more note about the playoff formats that are being tossed around. I am hearing talk that some would like to pick the Top 2 teams AFTER the bowls are over and let them play in the National Title game. This method (which would not be #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3) would lead to the same chaos that goes on at the end of the regular season. If the #1, #2 and #3 teams were all in different bowl games and #2 and #3 had impressive wins while #1 just barely won, then all 3 would be lobbying for a spot in the National Title game and someone would be left out again. You must play #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3 or else the process will remain chaotic and controversial and possibly leave some deserving teams out.

For those who complain about adding extra games, only 2 out of 119 teams would be “forced” to play in this big game and I’m sure those student-athletes would find a way to complete their studies. The 3 week layoff would probably allow enough time for any minor injuries from the January 1st bowl game to heal, yet not be as big of a layoff as the teams have now between the regular season and the bowls and may lead to a more crisply played Title game. There would be plenty of interest in not just bowl games each year, but there would now be THREE games that would capture major ratings, as the two preliminary games would be rated higher than any current regular bowl. The other bowls would remain intact and would be a reward for teams after a solid season. We would crown a true National Champion every year and we would also insure that all of the major regular season games were played with the same importance that they are today, and the polls would stay a major interest all year.

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