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Preseason Top 40 | |||||||||||||||||||
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Here is my 2006 Preseason Top 40. Two quick notes: First of all, my preseason rankings are NOT my Power Ratings. As an example - Louisville is rated #14 in my Power Poll or overall talent rankings but due to a manageable schedule, I have them #3 overall, as three sets of my ratings show them with an unbeaten season. My talent ratings only rate Boise St #35 overall but they made the list due to their manageable schedule, as they face just one of my Top 30 teams. My Top 25 is based on how I project the teams to finish in the final rankings & these Top 25’s have always done quite well. In 2002, I had Ohio St rated higher than any other preseason magazine coming into the year and they won the National Title. Of the Top 40 teams in 2003, an amazing 37 of the 40 were bowl eligible. In 2003, my magazine (and Lindy’s) had LSU rated higher than any other preseason magazine and they won the BCS Title. In 2004, I was the only major magazine to have Cal (#4 in the final regular season polls) in the Preseason Top 10! These rankings reflect not only talent, but the strength of schedule and how each team should finish the season. 1. Oklahoma The Sooners played in the National Title game 2 straight years until their 4 loss season of 2005. Ironically, the last time they lost at least 4 games was in 1999 and they won the National Title the next year. I rate the Sooners defense #1 in the NCAA and feel the offense will be vastly improved, as QB Bomar is now experienced and RB Peterson should be 100% healthy and back to his 2004 form. While “Big Game Bob” has come up short in such games in recent years, they do know how to beat Texas and should survive a tough trip to Oregon thus finding themselves in ANOTHER National Title game and this time, take home the prize. 2. Auburn The Tigers may have been the best team in the NCAA in 2004 but were not allowed to play for the National Title. They were probably the best team in the SEC in ‘05 but did not play in the SEC Title game. A few years ago Tuberville said they would win a National Title in a few years, so it is time. The Tigers are not #2 in my talent ratings but should be favored in all 12 of their games, with 4 winnable road trips. There is no way an undefeated SEC team does not get to the National Title game again, which is what happened to these Tigers just 2 short years ago. 3. Louisville Expectations were high for UL last year but they stunningly lost 3 games. Much like Auburn and WV in 2004, the Cards should rebound from that disappointment and surprise a lot of folks in ‘06. They led WV 24-7 in the 4Q on the road in ‘05 but somehow lost in 3 OT’s. This year they get WV at home and have my #2 offense in the country and a solid D. Yes, they face a powerful Miami, FL team but they nearly beat the Hurricanes in Miami two years ago and now get them at home. QB Brohm and RB Bush will both be top draft picks next year and the Cards will live up to 2005’s expectations this year and a win over Miami could have them playing for it all in Arizona in January. 4. USC For a mere mortal team this would be a rebuilding year, losing one of the best backfields of all time (Leinart, Bush and White) and having just 10 returning starters. They lost a HUGE amount of the players in the NFL Draft Day Party Hangover (44 pts) and no team has ever improved its record with 35 or more points earned. They have possible NCAA violations looming and both potential QB’s are question marks (injury/suspension). Pete Carroll is still the coach, however, so you know this team is loaded with talent. Six of my 7 sets of Power Ratings call for an unbeaten season and they will be favored in all 12 games. 5. Texas It was so good to see a coach like Mack Brown, who put up with criticism for years for “not being able to win the big game”, win it all last year. This year’s Horns team may have even more overall talent and they get Oklahoma at a neutral site and Ohio St at home. Three of my seven sets of Power Ratings call for an unbeaten year. My main question is at QB. Vince Young (to me) was the straw that stirred the drink and he is gone and the new QB probably won’t capture the same flair for the dramatic. 6. Miami, FL Miami was the best team in the ACC in 2005, as they outgained the two division champs by an avg of 140 ypg! They did not play in the Title game and then a disappointed squad was blown out in the bowl. This year QB Wright should be one of the most improved QB’s in the NCAA and the Hurricanes will likely be favored in all 12 games. Thirty-eight points earned in the NFL Draft Day Party hangover (see page 308) means that a lot of talent has departed but wins at Louisville and home vs FSU and VT could lead to Coker’s 3rd National Title game appearance. 7. Notre Dame Charlie Weis did an incredible job in his first year but also had the luxury of 11 returning starters on offense and in their 5th year removed from the option (West Coast now). This year the Irish are rated my #1 offense and they have a much improved defense. While they play a tough schedule, they will be favored in 11 games and Weis has once again re-awakened the echoes in South Bend. Almost every opponent is bowl caliber and will give ND their best shot, but this team is capable of running the table. 8. Ohio St The last time OSU qualified for 35 or more points in my NFL Draft Day Hangover system they dropped 4 games in 2004. This year the offense will be the best yet under Tressel (I rate them #3) and the D, despite massive losses, is still tough (#14). They will definitely be favored in 10 games but will be dogs at Texas and Iowa. The Buckeyes have won 3 of the last 4 Fiesta Bowls and should they knock off the Horns in Sept, could find themselves in Arizona once again. 9. Virginia Tech Ohio St was not the best team in the NCAA in their National Title year of 2002 but had the talent and the schedule to get there. It is scary picking the Hokies this low as they will be favored in 11 of their 12 games. Of all the teams in the Top 10, VT plays the easiest schedule, BY FAR at #78. They won their last trip to Miami en route to the ACC Title in 2004 and that road trip will be the only time they are a dog all year. Despite just 10 returning starters, the friendly schedule has them a Title contender in 2006. 10. Florida St The Seminoles were very young in 2005 when injuries hit them hard but they still won the ACC Title and almost knocked off Penn St in the Orange Bowl (3OT). They did lose a ton of talent to the NFL (see page 308) but are a stronger team than last year. If they are able to knock off Miami on the road in the opener and stay healthier than 2005, they would have a shot at the National Title game. 11. Michigan The Wolves have not been playing up to their talent level in recent years. This year they are one of only 2 teams in the country that are in all 8 categories for my Top Individual Units. One of my seven sets of Power Ratings actually has them #1. A better schedule may have had them higher, as they must face Notre Dame, Ohio St and Penn St all on the road. 12. Tennessee In 2003 Auburn was everyone’s preseason SEC darling and they were very disappointing. In 2004 the Tigers flew under the radar and simply went unbeaten. Tennessee was everyone’s preseason SEC Title pick in 2005 (except mine) and actually had a losing season. They brought back OC Cutcliffe, and QB Ainge might be the most improved QB in the NCAA this year. Three of their losses in ‘05 were by 4 points or less. They do face the 9th toughest schedule but are my pick to win the SEC East. 13. Arkansas The Hogs have 19 returning starters, making them one of the most veteran teams in the NCAA, and 2 of my sets of Power Ratings call them the best team in the SEC. I almost pulled the trigger and called for them to win the West but they do face Auburn on the road and are switching from a run-based attack to a passing offense. They have only 3 other road games vs winnable foes and they are 41-13 SU at home under Nutt. I have them #1 on my Most Improved list. 14. Georgia The Bulldogs were very good to me in 2005, as I had the only magazine that had them winning the SEC East, while most others had them finishing 3rd. They only have 9 returning starters (fewest SEC) and are not as talented in 2006. They do, however, have a great schedule and will only be a dog in only 1 or 2 games and are capable of getting back to the SEC Title game. 15. Iowa This year’s Hawkeye squad is very capable of winning the Big 10. While their LB corps was wiped out by graduation, their DL is in much better shape and they have one of the best backfields in the country led by QB Tate and RB Young. I have them favored in 11 games, with Ohio St at home and Michigan on the road, the keys to their Big 10 and National Title hopes. | |||||||||||||||||||
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