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This is the 15th (7-7) meeting all-time between these 2 as Cincy used to be in CUSA before leaving for the BE in ‘05. In the last meeting in ‘04 Cincy won 52-24 as they outgained SM 430-331 and were +4 in TO’s. HC Jeff Bower has had 14 straight winning seasons and has taken S Miss to bowls in 10 of 11 years. Bower was let go after the ssn finale (new HC Fedora is OkSt’s OC) but will coach here. This is the 6th straight bowl for SM going 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS incl LY’s 28-7 win at the GMAC (won L/3). This is Cincy’s 2nd straight, 6th in 8 years & the 9th bowl in school history. Kelly was hired LY with Dantonio departing & coached Cincy in the International Bowl, a 27-24 win over W Michigan. Several milestones were set TY incl their 9th win (1st time S/’53), finishing the ssn ranked with 3 sellouts at Nippert Stadium (most in school history). Kelly was named the BE Coach of the Year and while this is only his 2nd bowl, he did lead Div II Grand Valley State to two National Titles. The Cats played 6 bowl caliber teams this year (4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS) including a loss to then-#5 WV 28-23. They have outscored those opponents 29-20 but were outgained 385-383. SM played 2 teams that were in the Top 25 at some point TY (Tenn & Boise) losing both SU & ATS by a combined 42 points & played 5 bowl teams going 1-4 SU & ATS. They were outgained 414-333 and outscored 32-21. SM is just 2-4 ATS on grass the L/2Y and 7-16-1 ATS as an AD (0-2 TY) while Cincy is 2-1 ATS on grass TY & 3-1 as an AF.

SM is not known for its offense (#91) but TY avg’d 394 ypg and 28 ppg which is the 2nd highest S/’98. SM is led by senior QB Young who opened the season avg 199 ypg (54%) with a 4-2 ratio until an inj vs Boise State and never really got into any rhythm since his return. RB Fletcher ranks #14 in NCAA in rushing and has eight 100+ yd games. He became just the 3rd SM RB to have B2B 1,000 yd seasons & also captured the Conerly Award for the top player in Mississippi. Watch for RB Easterling (PS#17) as he played in only 1 game (burned RS) and is dynamic. The OL has paved the way for 200 rush ypg & 4.6 ypc both of which are highs under Bower allowing 18 sacks (5.2%). SM has always been defined by their D (our #58) as the highest total they’ve allowed S/’94 is 25 ppg in 2004. The 24 ppg allowed TY was a CUSA best as the conf had 8 teams allow over 30 ppg. SM, home of the non-BCS LB U corps, had 3 straight CUSA D POY from 2003-’05 (Coley, Boley, Davis) and MLB McRath fits the mold as he ranks #13 in NCAA avg 10.9 tpg. The SM secondary ranks #46 in our pass eff D (224 ypg, 57% 20-14 ratio) with CB Sumrall having 5 int while taking one to the house. SM’s ranks #32 in our ST’s with P Barefoot ranking #24 in the NCAA in net P.

Cincy’s HC Kelly installed a new Coast to Coast offense to compliment an already stout defense, spark fan interest and compete with the BE’s offensive powers. The result was a school record 441 pts scored (#14 in NCAA). The Cats have our #25 rated offense with 37 ppg & 436 ypg. Bionic Ben Mauk transferred from Wake after he suffered a horrific arm inj in LY’s season opener. He beat out Grutza, who started 11 gms in ‘06, but Grutza started 2 games early in the year including a BE POW effort vs Mia, Oh. Mauk broke a school record throwing for 27 TD’s. Kelly’s fast paced offense features WR Barnett who set school record with 13 TD rec’s. The OL thinned down (avg loss 25 lbs) to accommodate the new offense and they avg 6’4” 294, paving the way for 154 ypg (4.1), all’g 20 sks (4.9%). The Cats have an undersized athletic defense ranking #35 all’g 19 ppg, 371 ypg and #2 in NCAA with 39 TO’s gained. The D-Line avg 6’2” 250, all’g 106 rush ypg (3.0) with 30 of UC’s 38 sks. They are led by Sr’s DE Hoke (12 sks) & DT Byrd. The secondary is tied for #1 in the nation with 23 int led by AA CB Mickens & FS Nakamura. UC has our #36 pass efficiency ranking allowing 265 ypg (60%) with a 13-23 ratio. Cincy has our #31 ST’s led by the NCAA’s #1 punter in avg, Huber.

Southern Miss made a bizarre decision in letting HC Bower go. All he’s done is produce 14 straight winning seasons and bowl appearances in 10 of 11 years. With that said it will be an emotional farewell as this classy HC volunteered to stay on and coach this bowl after his release. Cincinnati meanwhile lobbied for both the Sun Bowl & Car Care Bowl but because of limited ticket sales in past bowls they ended up here. SM has 2 key additions on off (Easterling & Johnson back from inj) and a now-healthy QB. The Eagles also have 16 Alabama kids on their roster which will turn this into a potential upset.

FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS (+) 24 Cincinnati 27
RATING: 3*

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