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Fantasy Rookies - Worth the Risk? By Ted Kluck | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Drafting a rookie is like renting a movie you haven’t read much about. On one hand, you might get lucky and uncover a classic, like Waiting for Guffman or Bottle Rocket, but you’re just as likely to end up with Music and Lyrics. They are inevitably reached for in your drafts after “looking good in camp” or putting up scintillating preseason numbers. Fantasy owners pick them based on their college exploits and NFL potential, but rookies are rarely ready to contribute, right? But what about Vince Young, Reggie Bush (version: second half of the season) and Marques Colston? Rookies also provide valuable keeper-league fodder, with the likes of Jay Cutler and Matt Leinart looking like the real deal in their respective situations, and Laurence Maroney taking over the full-time reins in New England. So which rookies will make an impact this season? I’ve outlined my favorite rookies in order of initial contributions on both sides of the football. Offense 1. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills The Bills cut ties with Willis McGahee, who despite his big-name cache, averaged less than 4 YPC in his career and managed to alienate most of upstate New York. Enter Lynch, whose versatility will be featured early and often in an emerging Buffalo offense. He could be your number 2 starter. 2. Anthony Gonzales, WR, Colts I know, I know, Calvin Johnson is the physical prodigy and the “surest” thing in the draft. But Johnson was drafted by Detroit, where careers go to die, or at least where they take a while to begin. Gonzales steps into Brandon Stokley’s spot in the smoothest offense in the NFL, and with big-time speed and route running could be a Harrison heir. 3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings The Vikes didn’t draft Peterson to let him sit behind the likes of Chet Taylor and Mewelde Moore. Peterson was perhaps the safest skill-position pick in the draft in terms of immediate impact and he will make the Vikings better. May start the season as your number 3, but ends it as your 2, and a great keeper. 4. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions A matchup nightmare, Johnson figures to use his size and speed to take some heat off of Jon Kitna and the patchwork Detroit line. The Lions have other problems to solve namely their running game, defense, and special teams so don’t expect a blistering start, but Johnson was drafted #2 overall for a reason. 5. Dwayne Jarrett, WR, Panthers His draft day interview with Keyshawn was a low point in television history, but he steps into the possession role that Keyshawn vacates opposite Steve Smith. Look for Jarrett to be money in the red zone, a la Marques Colston, because the Panthers still lack a quality target at TE. 6. Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings A first-round talent, like Jarrett, who slipped a bit because of pedestrian 40 times, Rice could be a bargain for a Minnesota team completely devoid of WR talent. 7. Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers After a nice junior year at Nebraska, Jackson enters into a wide-open running back situation in Green Bay, where he can claim the job as his own with a strong preseason. No single aspect of Jackson’s game blows you away, but he will be an upgrade over Green Bay’s current stable. 8. Michael Bush, RB, Raiders Bush may have been the steal of the draft, and steps into a backfield ripe with potential. LaMont Jordan was wholly underwhelming last year (I know, because I drafted him °© not that I’m bitter) and Dom Rhodes rode a great Super Bowl into what looks like another third-down back role provided he can stay off the police blotter. Bush could be a goal-line stud with the potential to start. 9. Brian Leonard, RB, Rams Watch Leonard’s workload in the preseason and try to discern how he’ll be used, but he is a potential goal line beast in what is still Steven Jackson’s show at RB. Leonard is a great receiver out of the backfield as well. 10. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs It’s probably been decades since the Chiefs have had anything to get excited about at wide receiver (my apologies to Eddie Kennison and his family). Enter Bowe, whose great Sugar Bowl, fast 40 time, and nice performance at the Senior Bowl put him into the first round. Don’t expect great things initially, but he could be a guy to stash in your keeper leagues. 11. Greg Olsen, TE, Bears A big, fast athletic TE target for a team with shaky quarterbacking and a journeyman receiving corps? Hey, it’s worked well for Kansas City and San Diego. Olson won’t be Gonzo or Gates yet, but expect him to put up numbers. 12. JaMarcus Russell, QB, Raiders Conventional wisdom says the Raiders will not start a rookie QB in week one, but that logic fails on two levels. One, it’s the Raiders, and two, who else do they have to start? Andrew Walter? Josh McCown? Todd Marinovich? Vince Evans? 13. Ted Ginn, WR/Return Specialist, Dolphins The Ginn pick was a reach, and the best you can hope for with this guy is a replica of Devin Hester’s rookie season. That said, Hester’s rookie season wasn’t bad, but Ginn will almost certainly be overdrafted in your league just like in real life. 14. Drew Stanton, QB, Lions If the Lions falter early, and if history is any indication they will, look for Stanton to see increased reps in Mike Martz’s offense. Stanton brings good mobility and a lively arm into Detroit, and projects as their quarterback of the future. 15. Brady Quinn, QB, Browns The Browns got their franchise LT in Joe Thomas, and what they hope to be their franchise QB in Brady Quinn, who may start the season on the bench but when he steps in will do so with the promising Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards in his lineup. Defense 1. Brandon Merriweather, S, Patriots As my ESPN draft study illustrated, safety is the safest position on draft day, and this guy brings playmaking ability and aggressiveness in the run game to the table. Reminds me a little of another undersized Miami safety named Ed Reed. 2. Patrick Willis, LB, 49ers Willis should be a tackling machine in San Francisco. His defense won’t be on the field as much as Demeco Ryans’ last year (due in no small part to Houston’s woeful offense) but he will see plenty of opportunities to make plays. 3. Jon Beason, LB, Panthers The Beason selection spoke volumes about Carolina’s faith in Dan Morgan. Beason will join Thomas Davis in an emerging young linebacking corps. 4. LaRon Landry, S, Redskins Landry may have been the surest of sure things on draft day, and he joins Sean Taylor to become arguably the most formidable safety tandem in the league. 5. Gaines Adams, DE, Bucs While pass-rushers are amongst the hardest players to project (who saw Mark Anderson coming last year?) Adams is a player who looks to play a lot early on, and, like Anderson, will benefit from playing with a veteran line containing other players who can get to the quarterback. Rookie Sleepers These players are the “best of the rest” - waiver-wire players who may have landed in situations conducive to rookie production. Garrett Wolfe, RB, Bears -Wolfe was a reach in the third round, but with the departure of Thomas Jones he’ll be needed to spell the physical Cedric Benson and provide a change of pace. Yamon Figurs, KR, Ravens - Figurs blazed in his post-season workouts, and opened eyes at the Hula Bowl. Lorenzo Booker, RB, Dolphins -The fallout from the Ricky Williams situation had a great impact on Booker’s rookie outlook. With Ricky gone, look for the versatile Booker to reap the change-of-pace benefits as well as contribute in the return game. John Beck, QB, Dolphins - Similar to Stanton, if the Dolphins struggle early we may see a lot of Beck. Nate Ilaoa, RB, Eagles - Ilaoa is a short, round hammer in the Jerome Bettis mold who was Hawaii’s featured back last season. Watch his preseason production, but he could be a sneaky goal line vulture. Tony Hunt, RB, Eagles - Has potential value as Brian Westbrook’s handcuff. Legedu Naanee, WR, Chargers - File him in the deep, deep sleeper category, but he brings intriguing size and speed to a receiving corps in need of playmakers. Ed. Note: Ted Kluck is the author of three books, a former professional indoor football player, and a contributor to ESPN.com. He has agreed to write weekly fantasy content during the 2007 season. His opinions are his own, and do not reflect those of Northcoast Sports. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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