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NFC Breakouts, Busts and Sleepers By Ted Kluck | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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You know them each year they either kill your team or help it. That key WR gets old (see: Hines Ward) or flakes out (see: Randy Moss), or the young runner that rode pine last year steps in to lead his team to glory. They are breakouts, busts, and sleepers and here are our choices for 2007. Arizona Cardinals Breakout: Matt Leinart, QB. More comfortable in the job, I think the second-year QB will flourish and begin finding his talented wideouts. Bust: Leonard Pope, TE. More was expected of Pope last season, and he didn’t deliver. Sleeper: Edgerrin James, RB. Hard to call a star like Edge a sleeper, but he’ll be underdrafted based on last year’s performance. Grab him and reap the benefits of a re-tooled o-line. Atlanta Falcons Breakout: Jerious Norwood, RB. Last year’s speedy rookie will see the rock more and more in Petrino’s offense, especially with Warrick Dunn on the shelf. Bust: Mike Vick, QB. Two words: Federal Indictment. Vick is undraftable. Sleeper: Michael Jenkins, WR. This guy won’t get drafted in most leagues, but had 7 TD receptions last year. He’s a tall red-zone target. Carolina Panthers Breakout: DeAngelo Williams, RB. Not a great system fit in Carolina, but he’s the most explosive back on their roster. Bust: Jake Delhomme, QB. The shine is off Jake, and David Carr presents a younger option if he falters. Sleeper: Drew Carter, WR. A deep sleeper, but can stretch the field when healthy Chicago Bears Breakout: Cedric Benson, RB. He has to break out this year, as he, and the Bears, have no other choice. Buyer beware however, because his teammates (read: offensive line) hate him. Bust: Muhsin Muhammad, WR. Don’t overdraft him based on the Bears Super Bowl appearance. His numbers are pedestrian for a #1 wideout. Sleeper: Rex Grossman, QB. It’s popular to hate Rex in Chicago, but the kid throws a nice deep ball and if he can limit his bad decisions will be a solid bye-week play. Dallas Cowboys Breakout: Marion Barber, RB. Now that Parcells is gone, perhaps the new staff will realize that Barber is their best ballcarrier and end the Julius Jones experiment. Bust: Julius Jones, RB. See above. This guy killed me last year, not that I’m bitter. Sleeper: Jason Witten, TE. At least perception-wise, is not in the Gates/Gonzo/Shockey echelon, but had 64 catches last year. Detroit Lions Breakout: Tatum Bell, RB. Keep any eye on Kevin Jones’ health, but it looks like Bell will have the job to himself at least at the beginning, which is more than you can say for a lot of NFL backs. Bust: Mike Furrey, WR. I love this guy as much as anyone, but don’t overdraft him, expecting a redux of last year’s numbers. Sleeper: Jon Kitna, QB. He’s a QB in a Martz offense. There will be numbers, and he’ll be there for you after guys like Leinart and Cutler are overdrafted. Green Bay Packers Breakout: Greg Jennings, WR. Showed promise and playmaking ability (14 ypc) as a rookie last season. A nice compliment to Donald Driver. Bust: Brett Favre, QB. I love Favre, but 18 TD’s and 18 picks last year doesn’t give much hope. Sleeper: Brandon Jackson, RB. The Pack are very excited about this guy, and dumped Ahman Green in the offseason. He’ll provide good value in the middle rounds of your draft. Minnesota Vikings Breakout: Sidney Rice, WR. This is the most unexciting offense in the league, but the hope is that Rice will distance himself from the pack and make plays. Bust: Troy Williamson, WR. Don’t grab this guy expecting this to be the year. It won’t be. Sleeper: Chester Taylor, RB. At press time Peterson hasn’t signed yet, and Chet Taylor is the better blocker and pass-game guy. Don’t write him off. New Orleans Saints Breakout: Drew Brees, QB. You already know him, but this is the year he gets drafted with the Peyton Mannings and Tom Bradys. Bust: Marques Colston, WR. I like him, but the Saints need to find a compliment or else defenses will blanket. Sleeper: Deuce McCallister, RB. Again. Deuce isn’t giving up his job without a fight, and he was an integral part of the Saints offense last year to the tune of 10 TD’s and 30 catches. New York Giants Breakout: Brandon Jacobs, RB. Consensus is that he will carry the load in NY, with Droughns as the change-of-pace. Bust: Eli Manning, QB. I don’t see him progressing beyond “adequate starter.” Sleeper: Sinorice Moss, WR. Is an explosive player, but struggled mightily with injuries as a rookie. The Giants hope he’s a bigger part of the offense and the return game in 2007. Philadelphia Eagles Breakout: Kevin Curtis, WR. One of the Eagles only splashy offseason acquisitions, Curtis provides an intriguing underneath option for McNabb. Bust: Reggie Brown, WR. He led the team in receiving last year (46 catches), but don’t let that fool you °© Brown is not a true #1. Sleeper: Jason Avant, WR. A big, strong possession guy from Michigan, Avant could flourish when healthy. Will be a waiver-wire guy worth a look. San Francisco 49ers Breakout: Vernon Davis, TE. The D-Jax acquisition helps, but the Niners drafted Davis to be a Tony Gonzalez-type target. Bust: Ashley Lelie, WR. Has been a disappointment in his first two stops, no reason to think that changes now. Sleeper: Alex Smith, QB. Has progressed nicely after a nightmarish rookie campaign. Look for him to improve on his 18 total TD’s this season. Seattle Seahawks Breakout: Deion Branch, WR. Will make an impact in his first full season as a Seahawk, and pretty much has to, as there’s nobody left to catch the football. Bust: Shaun Alexander, RB. SA has his rushing title, averaged less than 4 ypc last year, and will turn 30 before the start of the regular season. Not saying he’ll be terrible, he just won’t be a superstar. Draft accordingly. Sleeper: Nate Burleson, WR. Burly is a deep, deep sleeper and has to show something, but he was once capable. Keep an eye on him. St. Louis Rams Breakout: Randy McMichael, TE. The Rams are going to start using the TE, and this guy can get down the seam. Bust: Isaac Bruce, WR. Ike has been awesome, but is getting old. Only 3 TD’s last year tells the story. Sleeper: Drew Bennett, WR. Infuzes some youth into an aging WR corps. Bennett could surprise, especially in the red zone. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Breakout: Cadillac Williams, RB. The Caddy was dreadful last season, but he’s their only real option at RB and must bounce back. Bust: Jeff Garcia, QB. He’s all the rage after his relief performance last season, but let’s not forget he’s 37, and let’s also not forget how terrible he was in Detroit and Cleveland. Sleeper: Chris Simms, QB. Simms and his spleen will be back this season, and will take over after Garcia falters. That’s if he can beat out the other 17 quarterbacks on Jon Gruden’s roster. Washington Redskins Breakout: Clinton Portis, RB. Not really a breakout, but C-Port will be back with a vengeance this season, especially after seeing Ladell Betts perform so well in relief. Bust: Santana Moss, WR. He came back down to earth last year and looks like he’ll stay there. Chris Cooley is the real threat in this receiving corps. Sleeper: Jason Campbell, QB. The job is his now, and he looks like the real deal. A nice keeper-league prospect. Ed. Note: Ted Kluck is the author of three books, a former professional indoor football player, and a contributor to ESPN.com. He has agreed to write weekly fantasy content during the 2007 season. His opinions are his own, and do not reflect those of Northcoast Sports. Visit him online at www.tedkluck.com. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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